Abstract The agricultural sector in the country has a high and growing status and importance, but the growth and development of this sector are not possible without proper and effective risk management. In the current study, using the Monte Carlo simulation method as one of the powerful tools in risk analysis, the production risk due to the effects of climate change on the dominant agricultural products of Plovdiv, Bulgaria in the period 1990-2017, is predicted and measured. The results showed that Lentils has the highest risk (Product risk index was -0.25%) and bean has the lowest risk (Product risk index was 0.17%). Overall, the research results indicate the significant effect of performance risk in this region. Therefore, farmers should pay special attention to the risk of crop performance in determining their cultivation pattern in addition to other factors and criteria such as price, profitability, self-consumption, etc. Meanwhile, it is suggested that products with higher risk should not be grown alone and should be placed next to the other products with less risk as much as possible to increase food security.

Abstract Garlic is a plant that is native to Central Asia and belongs to the Alliaceae family. When garlic bulbs are crushed, they release a sulfoxide molecule called alliin, which is the precursor to the garlic's distinctive scent and flavor. Fresh garlic and its essential oil are used in the food sector as natural antioxidant agents, flavorings, and antimicrobials, notably in processed chicken and meat products. In this research, on a number of pathogenic strains, the garlic essential oil’s antibacterial activity was investigated in vitro using minimum bactericidal concentration, minimum inhibitory concentration, and the disk diffusion technique. Gas chromatography was used to identify the garlic essential oil’s chemical components. Aluminum chloride colorimetric, Folin-Ciocalteu, and radical reduction capacity methods were used to measure flavonoid, total phenol, and antioxidant content. It was shown that the most resistant to essential garlic oil were gram-negative bacteria, including Escherichia coli and Pseudomonas aeruginosa. The mixture of diallyl disulfide was 40.3% greater, according to the results of the chemical compound identification of essential garlic oil. Antioxidant activity, flavonoids, and total phenol of essential garlic oil were 80%, 0.24 mg quercetin in grams, and 0.33 mg gallic acid in gram, respectively. The findings of this investigation revealed that garlic might be exploited as a source of medicinal chemicals.